Consensus PnL $1.8M · win rate 61% (1362–877, n=2239) · was PM monthly #630 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.8M
Record
1362W / 877L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 2239 settled
Batting Avg
28.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1104
Source
PM monthly #630
Trades
2,829
Markets
2,799
Volume
$9.9M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 4 on the consensus side (75%)- Oilers vs. RangersOilers $3.0K · now 46¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (42% of 12)
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Ravens $2.9K · now 54¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (56% of 18)
- Raiders vs. JetsRaiders $1.8K · now 47¢ · in at 51¢against the consensus (Jets)
- Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?Yes $298 · now 6¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
Specialties
1,719 settled consensus markets · held side won 87% at an average entry of 52¢- NHL
+42 pts
side won 94% of 813 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +32%
- Other Sports
+44 pts
side won 100% of 31 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +37%
- College Football
+53 pts
side won 100% of 14 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +54%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 33% of 61)
- 30–50¢: 32%(won 85% of 553)
- 50–70¢: 62%(won 90% of 1058)
- 70¢ and up: 3%(won 87% of 47)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.