Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the New York Giants make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 43¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 5, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$3.8K
$-1.1K
66.6¢ → 42.5¢
-36% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Late
143h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI milkteabobaCTR | Noavg 67.8¢ | $1.8K | $1.2K | -$716.17 | 68% 40-19 (59) |
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR | Noavg 64.3¢ | $1.5K | $963.84 | -$512.95 | 43% 468-621 (1089) |
 extractive-manatee | Yes | $943.23 | $943.23 | +$384.45 | 33% 537-1069 (1606) |
 JustADonkCTR | Noavg 68¢ | $758.48 | $468.3 | -$290.18 | 55% 912-754 (1666) |
AB ABC12345654321 | Yesavg 44.8¢ | $202.66 | $248.76 | +$46.1 | 50% 1694-1680 (3374) |
Invested
$1,845.32
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$716.17
Record
68%
40-19 (59)
Invested
$1,476.79
Value
$963.84
PnL
-$512.95
Record
43%
468-621 (1089)
extractive-manateeInvested
$943.23
Value
$943.23
PnL
+$384.45
Record
33%
537-1069 (1606)
JustADonkCTRInvested
$758.48
Value
$468.3
PnL
-$290.18
Record
55%
912-754 (1666)
Invested
$202.66
Value
$248.76
PnL
+$46.1
Record
50%
1694-1680 (3374)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.