Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (85%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 16¢ · $313 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 100%
$313.38
$53.67
14.7¢ → 15.5¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 16%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 85%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Late
373h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hannah-MontanaCTR | Noavg 13¢ | $130 | $146.78 | +$23.67 | 67% 209-101 (310) |
 iutwpfalCTR | Noavg 16.3¢ | $66.02 | $96.71 | +$30.7 | 57% 412-313 (725) |
KI KiruaTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $35.29 | $36.47 | +$1.18 | 57% 271-203 (474) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Noavg 17.5¢ | $26.35 | $25.67 | -$0.68 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
 KimchiCapitalCTR<$100 | Noavg 17.9¢ | $8.95 | $7.75 | -$1.2 | 75% 540-176 (716) |
Hannah-MontanaCTRInvested
$130
Value
$146.78
PnL
+$23.67
Record
67%
209-101 (310)
iutwpfalCTRInvested
$66.02
Value
$96.71
PnL
+$30.7
Record
57%
412-313 (725)
Invested
$35.29
Value
$36.47
PnL
+$1.18
Record
57%
271-203 (474)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$26.35
Value
$25.67
PnL
-$0.68
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
KimchiCapitalCTR<$100Invested
$8.95
Value
$7.75
PnL
-$1.2
Record
75%
540-176 (716)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.