Consensus PnL $21K · win rate 60% (216–146, n=362) · was PM monthly #985 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$21.2K
Record
216W / 146L
Win Rate
60.0%
of 362 settled
Batting Avg
63.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1167
Source
PM monthly #985
Trades
469
Markets
534
Volume
$227.5K
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 9 on the consensus side (67%)- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $3.8K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes $1.2K · now 54¢ · in at 24¢with the consensus (76% of 21)
- Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Yes $213 · now 76¢ · in at 73¢against the consensus (No)
- Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?No $181 · now 98¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (38% of 8)
- Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?No $146 · now 97¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (29% of 7)
- Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Yes $136 · now 77¢ · in at 27¢with the consensus (57% of 14)
- Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?No $36 · now 16¢ · in at 15¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Yes $17 · now 12¢ · in at 39¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
313 settled consensus markets · held side won 55% at an average entry of 48¢- Tech
+12 pts
side won 58% of 132 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +6%
- Elections
+2 pts
side won 37% of 35 · avg entry 35¢
ROI −6%
- Economy
+3 pts
side won 75% of 16 · avg entry 72¢
ROI −13%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 43% of 35 at an average 49¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI −8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 40%(won 18% of 124)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 45% of 44)
- 50–70¢: 14%(won 76% of 45)
- 70¢ and up: 32%(won 95% of 100)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.