Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 89¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.9K
$826.17
45.9¢ → 88.5¢
+93% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+40 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Late
2241h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
7 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DE dedidancCTR | Yesavg 14.4¢ | $315.46 | $716.83 | +$401.37 | 57% 103-77 (180) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 33.9¢ | $373.38 | $671.51 | +$307.15 | 73% 2953-1072 (4025) |
HI hithitfar | Noavg 70.4¢ | $271.2 | $323.73 | +$52.53 | 58% 640-469 (1109) |
 KimchiCapital | Noavg 29¢ | $40.6 | $112 | +$58.1 | 75% 540-176 (716) |
 iutwpfal<$100 | Noavg 79.4¢ | $78.08 | $85.1 | +$7.01 | 57% 412-313 (725) |
Invested
$315.46
Value
$716.83
PnL
+$401.37
Record
57%
103-77 (180)
Tenebrus7Invested
$373.38
Value
$671.51
PnL
+$307.15
Record
73%
2953-1072 (4025)
Invested
$271.2
Value
$323.73
PnL
+$52.53
Record
58%
640-469 (1109)
KimchiCapitalInvested
$40.6
Value
$112
PnL
+$58.1
Record
75%
540-176 (716)
iutwpfal<$100Invested
$78.08
Value
$85.1
PnL
+$7.01
Record
57%
412-313 (725)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.