Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 37¢ · $737 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$737.06
$184.64
27.1¢ → 37¢
+36% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
2169h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
28 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SardinianshepherdCTR | Yesavg 25¢ | $427.89 | $624.72 | +$196.83 | 65% 929-506 (1435) |
CO cowcatCTR | Yesavg 41¢ | $105.35 | $93.79 | -$10.28 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
 PaddyAlpha<$100 | Noavg 78.5¢ | $19.49 | $15.87 | -$3.62 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
 DonationsReceiverCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $1.6 | $1.83 | +$1.83 | 60% 245-160 (405) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.2¢ | $0.97 | $0.87 | -$0.11 | 57% 3069-2356 (5425) |
SardinianshepherdCTRInvested
$427.89
Value
$624.72
PnL
+$196.83
Record
65%
929-506 (1435)
Invested
$105.35
Value
$93.79
PnL
-$10.28
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
PaddyAlpha<$100Invested
$19.49
Value
$15.87
PnL
-$3.62
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
DonationsReceiverCTR<$100Invested
$1.6
Value
$1.83
PnL
+$1.83
Record
60%
245-160 (405)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$0.97
Value
$0.87
PnL
-$0.11
Record
57%
3069-2356 (5425)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.