Consensus PnL $81K · win rate 68% (671–312, n=983) · hand-picked wallet · holds 13 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$81.2K
Record
671W / 312L
Win Rate
68.0%
of 983 settled
Batting Avg
52.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#810
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
25,619
Markets
1,595
Volume
$1.8M
Top consensus positions
13 in listed consensus markets · 11 of 13 on the consensus side (85%)- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $3.8K · now 95¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes $2.8K · now 36¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (79% of 29)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $2.5K · now 71¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (82% of 110)
- Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?No $1.7K · now 83¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will The Odyssey be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Yes $625 · now 37¢ · in at 25¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No $372 · now 88¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (73% of 11)
- Will the Republican Party win the TX-35 House seat?Yes $265 · now 27¢ · in at 35¢with the consensus (44% of 9)
- Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?No $182 · now 26¢ · in at 29¢with the consensus (46% of 41)
Specialties
1,253 settled consensus markets · held side won 76% at an average entry of 70¢- Geopolitics
+5 pts
side won 86% of 307 · avg entry 81¢
ROI +6%
- Elections
+5 pts
side won 60% of 253 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +9%
- Mentions
+4 pts
side won 80% of 193 · avg entry 77¢
ROI +2%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 12% of 170)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 47% of 109)
- 50–70¢: 13%(won 71% of 167)
- 70¢ and up: 64%(won 94% of 807)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.