Consensus PnL $47K · win rate 52% (150–141, n=291) · hand-picked wallet · holds 19 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$47.2K
Record
150W / 141L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 291 settled
Batting Avg
60.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1651
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
6,576
Markets
475
Volume
$5.9M
Top consensus positions
19 in listed consensus markets · 15 of 19 on the consensus side (79%)- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $50K · now 19¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $10K · now 95¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $6.6K · now 96¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No $5.4K · now 97¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (94% of 31)
- Israeli Knesset election annulled?No $2.3K · now 96¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (93% of 15)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $2.2K · now 74¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (68% of 45)
- Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?No $2.0K · now 94¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes $1.6K · now 42¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (50% of 46)
Specialties
367 settled consensus markets · held side won 59% at an average entry of 57¢- Economy
+2 pts
side won 29% of 41 · avg entry 27¢
ROI +2%
- Soccer
+6 pts
side won 70% of 37 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +3%
- Politics
+4 pts
side won 87% of 31 · avg entry 83¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 72% of 112 at an average 73¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 38%(won 5% of 138)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 41% of 17)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 57% of 14)
- 70¢ and up: 54%(won 97% of 198)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.