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3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 96¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$3.3K
$40.24
92.5¢ → 95.6¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
431h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tetrase | Noavg 92.4¢ | $2.8K | $2.9K | +$97.39 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
 bigshort | Noavg 93.4¢ | $280.09 | $286.8 | +$6.71 | 83% 357-71 (428) |
 PaddyAlphaCTR | Yesavg 8.6¢ | $127.18 | $70.83 | -$56.35 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 92.7¢ | $62.35 | $63.24 | +$0.89 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
 cambridgeisaacCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $15 | $6.6 | -$8.4 | 57% 1114-837 (1951) |
tetraseInvested
$2,795.3
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$97.39
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
bigshortInvested
$280.09
Value
$286.8
PnL
+$6.71
Record
83%
357-71 (428)
PaddyAlphaCTRInvested
$127.18
Value
$70.83
PnL
-$56.35
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
Invested
$62.35
Value
$63.24
PnL
+$0.89
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100Invested
$15
Value
$6.6
PnL
-$8.4
Record
57%
1114-837 (1951)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.