Consensus PnL $17K · win rate 87% (279–41, n=320) · hand-picked wallet · holds 13 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$17.5K
Record
279W / 41L
Win Rate
87.0%
of 320 settled
Batting Avg
67.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#294
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
7,451
Markets
499
Volume
$746.9K
Top consensus positions
13 in listed consensus markets · 12 of 13 on the consensus side (92%)- Iran nuclear test before 2027?No $4.0K · now 95¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (77% of 13)
- Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?No $3.7K · now 96¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?No $3.0K · now 94¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (92% of 13)
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No $2.0K · now 98¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (95% of 37)
- Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?No $1.9K · now 94¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (62% of 13)
- Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Yes $1.7K · now 99¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (81% of 26)
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?No $1.4K · now 96¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (43% of 14)
- Trump meets with Putin by December 31?Yes $840 · now 84¢ · in at 81¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
397 settled consensus markets · held side won 91% at an average entry of 86¢- Politics
+7 pts
side won 92% of 133 · avg entry 85¢
ROI +5%
- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 90% of 135 · avg entry 86¢
ROI +2%
- Elections
+6 pts
side won 94% of 31 · avg entry 87¢
ROI +4%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 27% of 15)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 30% of 10)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 78% of 23)
- 70¢ and up: 88%(won 96% of 349)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.