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4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$5.0K
$94.45
95.5¢ → 97.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
434h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tetrase | Noavg 96.8¢ | $3.5K | $3.4K | +$21.05 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
 Dr.mett | Noavg 92.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$71.48 | 86% 1417-234 (1651) |
 Talophex<$100 | Noavg 95.7¢ | $47.85 | $48.95 | +$0.68 | 91% 929-95 (1024) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $7.6 | $8.8 | +$1.2 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
 PaddyAlpha<$100 | Noavg 96.1¢ | $4.85 | $4.9 | +$0.05 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
tetraseInvested
$3,535.58
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$21.05
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
Dr.mettInvested
$1,444.34
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$71.48
Record
86%
1417-234 (1651)
Talophex<$100Invested
$47.85
Value
$48.95
PnL
+$0.68
Record
91%
929-95 (1024)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$7.6
Value
$8.8
PnL
+$1.2
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
PaddyAlpha<$100Invested
$4.85
Value
$4.9
PnL
+$0.05
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.