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3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 96¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$5.8K
-$100.84
90.3¢ → 96¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
408h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME melonmanm | Noavg 89.6¢ | $4.2K | $4.4K | +$291.61 | 65% 527-282 (809) |
 tetrase | Noavg 92.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$38.48 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
 GohstCTR | Yesavg 17¢ | $570.09 | $135.82 | -$434.28 | 49% 738-770 (1508) |
JE Jest55<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $90 | $95.95 | +$5.95 | 75% 1028-338 (1366) |
 PaddyAlphaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.6¢ | $18.33 | $15.73 | -$2.6 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
Invested
$4,159.27
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$291.61
Record
65%
527-282 (809)
tetraseInvested
$1,110.05
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$38.48
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
GohstCTRInvested
$570.09
Value
$135.82
PnL
-$434.28
Record
49%
738-770 (1508)
Invested
$90
Value
$95.95
PnL
+$5.95
Record
75%
1028-338 (1366)
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100Invested
$18.33
Value
$15.73
PnL
-$2.6
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.