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4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$2.2K
$71.84
93.2¢ → 97¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Late
430h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME melonmanm | Noavg 93.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$35.36 | 65% 527-282 (809) |
JE Jest55 | Noavg 92¢ | $555.39 | $584.8 | +$29.41 | 75% 1028-338 (1366) |
 tetrase | Noavg 93¢ | $465 | $485.25 | +$20.25 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 92.2¢ | $57.49 | $60.54 | +$3.05 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
 PaddyAlphaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.9¢ | $35.04 | $18.81 | -$16.24 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
Invested
$1,051.6
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$35.36
Record
65%
527-282 (809)
Invested
$555.39
Value
$584.8
PnL
+$29.41
Record
75%
1028-338 (1366)
tetraseInvested
$465
Value
$485.25
PnL
+$20.25
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
Invested
$57.49
Value
$60.54
PnL
+$3.05
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100Invested
$35.04
Value
$18.81
PnL
-$16.24
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.