Will the Patriots win the season series against the Dolphins during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 68¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 12, 2027

Yes68¢No32¢Ends Tue, Jan 12, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$231.12

Smart Money Entry

63.8¢ → 67.5¢

+6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares5,026

Combined PnL+$207

No3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares6,186

Combined PnL+$24.12

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

59h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ND ndb1	Yesavg 64¢	$3.2K	$3.4K	+$100	64% 1050-593 (1643)
AN ancianoCTR	No	$379.44	$1.9K	+$38.21	54% 1415-1224 (2639)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$44.55	$43.2	-$1.35	43% 10590-14068 (24658)
CosmicCedarCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$35.47	$22.72	-$12.75	51% 1100-1065 (2165)
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c	Yesavg 34.3¢	$107.9	$17.72	+$107	68% 740-356 (1096)

ndb1

Yes

Invested

$3,200

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$100

Record

64%

1050-593 (1643)

ancianoCTR

Invested

$379.44

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$38.21

Record

54%

1415-1224 (2639)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$44.55

Value

$43.2

PnL

-$1.35

Record

43%

10590-14068 (24658)

CosmicCedarCTR<$100

Invested

$35.47

Value

$22.72

PnL

-$12.75

Record

51%

1100-1065 (2165)

0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c

Yes

Invested

$107.9

Value

$17.72

PnL

+$107

Record

68%

740-356 (1096)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

59h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.