Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 9%-12%?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 92¢ · $475 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$474.71
$21.33
93¢ → 92.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
80h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO cocococococo | Noavg 93.4¢ | $285.63 | $282.37 | -$1.66 | 52% 1668-1539 (3207) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 91.6¢ | $83.33 | $84.07 | +$0.73 | 21% 2284-8684 (10968) |
TR TrueDignityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $56.68 | $63.11 | +$11.48 | 37% 45-78 (123) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $24.95 | $33.17 | +$8.21 | 59% 3560-2474 (6034) |
 CarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.5¢ | $8.8 | $12 | +$2.56 | 67% 4173-2038 (6211) |
Invested
$285.63
Value
$282.37
PnL
-$1.66
Record
52%
1668-1539 (3207)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$83.33
Value
$84.07
PnL
+$0.73
Record
21%
2284-8684 (10968)
Invested
$56.68
Value
$63.11
PnL
+$11.48
Record
37%
45-78 (123)
Invested
$24.95
Value
$33.17
PnL
+$8.21
Record
59%
3560-2474 (6034)
CarCTR<$100Invested
$8.8
Value
$12
PnL
+$2.56
Record
67%
4173-2038 (6211)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.