Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$2.4K
$602.67
75¢ → 98¢
+31% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 gopfan2 | Noavg 86¢ | $831.53 | $961.97 | +$130.44 | 51% 901-875 (1776) |
 nicoco89 | Noavg 58.8¢ | $474.98 | $831.34 | +$356.37 | 65% 1075-583 (1658) |
0X 0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710 | Noavg 79.1¢ | $361.6 | $459.84 | +$98.23 | 51% 2097-1976 (4073) |
SI singularityman | Noavg 83¢ | $84.52 | $101.77 | +$17.25 | 42% 138-193 (331) |
HO Hourglass<$100 | Noavg 84.2¢ | $1.72 | $2.11 | +$0.39 | 77% 8889-2658 (11547) |
gopfan2Invested
$831.53
Value
$961.97
PnL
+$130.44
Record
51%
901-875 (1776)
nicoco89Invested
$474.98
Value
$831.34
PnL
+$356.37
Record
65%
1075-583 (1658)
Invested
$361.6
Value
$459.84
PnL
+$98.23
Record
51%
2097-1976 (4073)
Invested
$84.52
Value
$101.77
PnL
+$17.25
Record
42%
138-193 (331)
Invested
$1.72
Value
$2.11
PnL
+$0.39
Record
77%
8889-2658 (11547)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.