Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 99¢ · $523 held
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$523.09
-$412.2
99.4¢ → 99.3¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+15 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
4874h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
8 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO Contestable-Parfait | Noavg 99.4¢ | $409.64 | $409.23 | -$0.41 | 38% 20-32 (52) |
 SeutervoinenCTR<$100 | Yes | $55.51 | $55.51 | -$370.4 | 85% 311-57 (368) |
CO cowcatCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $64.89 | $46.61 | -$37.41 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $10.87 | $10.9 | +$0.03 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.6 | $0.6 | -$4.02 | 57% 3068-2356 (5424) |
Invested
$409.64
Value
$409.23
PnL
-$0.41
Record
38%
20-32 (52)
SeutervoinenCTR<$100Invested
$55.51
Value
$55.51
PnL
-$370.4
Record
85%
311-57 (368)
Invested
$64.89
Value
$46.61
PnL
-$37.41
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$10.87
Value
$10.9
PnL
+$0.03
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$0.6
Value
$0.6
PnL
-$4.02
Record
57%
3068-2356 (5424)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.