Will the Republican Party win the CO-05 House seat?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 59¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$6.6K
$58.47
58.1¢ → 58.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
720h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME Melody626 | Yesavg 57.9¢ | $5.8K | $5.8K | +$57.67 | 58% 705-521 (1226) |
SB sbimbgCTR | Noavg 41¢ | $683.28 | $683.28 | +$8.33 | 70% 3189-1369 (4558) |
CO cowcat | Yesavg 69.1¢ | $58.07 | $93.96 | -$8.94 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Yesavg 57¢ | $14.2 | $15.28 | +$1.08 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Noavg 30¢ | $0.84 | $1.17 | +$0.33 | 51% 2516-2391 (4907) |
Invested
$5,755.34
Value
$5.8K
PnL
+$57.67
Record
58%
705-521 (1226)
Invested
$683.28
Value
$683.28
PnL
+$8.33
Record
70%
3189-1369 (4558)
Invested
$58.07
Value
$93.96
PnL
-$8.94
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$14.2
Value
$15.28
PnL
+$1.08
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
Invested
$0.84
Value
$1.17
PnL
+$0.33
Record
51%
2516-2391 (4907)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.