Will the Republican Party win the FL-04 House seat?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 80¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$2.1K
-$34.64
80.8¢ → 79.5¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
280h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Yesavg 80.6¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$19.23 | 61% 203-132 (335) |
HO HotDogs | Yesavg 83¢ | $538.76 | $516.21 | -$22.55 | 94% 442-28 (470) |
CO cowcat | Yesavg 73¢ | $109.5 | $119.25 | +$9.75 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
PI piepedCTR<$100 | Noavg 21.6¢ | $54.19 | $51.39 | -$2.8 | 42% 71-100 (171) |
HO HourglassCTR<$100 | Noavg 16¢ | $0.67 | $0.86 | +$0.19 | 77% 8889-2658 (11547) |
Invested
$1,402.51
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$19.23
Record
61%
203-132 (335)
Invested
$538.76
Value
$516.21
PnL
-$22.55
Record
94%
442-28 (470)
Invested
$109.5
Value
$119.25
PnL
+$9.75
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$54.19
Value
$51.39
PnL
-$2.8
Record
42%
71-100 (171)
Invested
$0.67
Value
$0.86
PnL
+$0.19
Record
77%
8889-2658 (11547)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.