Will the Republican Party win the FL-12 House seat?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 86¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$6.0K
$33.28
82.8¢ → 85.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
3277h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Yesavg 83.7¢ | $4.6K | $4.7K | +$71.64 | 61% 203-132 (335) |
CO cowcat | Yesavg 75¢ | $52.5 | $739.5 | -$33 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
HO HotDogs | Yesavg 85¢ | $425 | $425 | +$0 | 94% 442-28 (470) |
AV aviato<$100 | Yesavg 88¢ | $97.41 | $94.09 | -$3.32 | 84% 2440-449 (2889) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 88.5¢ | $56.44 | $54.4 | -$2.04 | 56% 14224-11030 (25254) |
Invested
$4,597.06
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$71.64
Record
61%
203-132 (335)
Invested
$52.5
Value
$739.5
PnL
-$33
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$425
Value
$425
PnL
+$0
Record
94%
442-28 (470)
Invested
$97.41
Value
$94.09
PnL
-$3.32
Record
84%
2440-449 (2889)
Invested
$56.44
Value
$54.4
PnL
-$2.04
Record
56%
14224-11030 (25254)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.