Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 73¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$2.7K
$356.5
61.9¢ → 73¢
+18% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
445h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA | Noavg 61.9¢ | $2.2K | $2.6K | +$379.74 | 67% 751-378 (1129) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 63.7¢ | $59.93 | $36.44 | +$4.18 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
SB sbimbgCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $38.85 | $28.35 | -$10.5 | 70% 3189-1369 (4558) |
 ScottyNoooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42.5¢ | $42.5 | $27 | -$15.5 | 50% 1537-1513 (3050) |
 Ryxon21CTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $3.55 | $2.13 | -$1.42 | 71% 318-130 (448) |
Invested
$2,221.56
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$379.74
Record
67%
751-378 (1129)
Invested
$59.93
Value
$36.44
PnL
+$4.18
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
Invested
$38.85
Value
$28.35
PnL
-$10.5
Record
70%
3189-1369 (4558)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100Invested
$42.5
Value
$27
PnL
-$15.5
Record
50%
1537-1513 (3050)
Ryxon21CTR<$100Invested
$3.55
Value
$2.13
PnL
-$1.42
Record
71%
318-130 (448)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.