Will the Republican Party win the NC-06 House seat?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 88¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$2.1K
-$2
88.4¢ → 88¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Late
4825h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
275 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Yesavg 89¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$19.95 | 53% 6689-5886 (12575) |
HO HotDogs | Yesavg 85¢ | $255 | $264 | +$9 | 94% 442-28 (470) |
CO cowcat | Yes | $105.6 | $105.6 | +$7.75 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Yesavg 78.7¢ | $9.36 | $10.56 | +$1.2 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Noavg 12¢ | $2.41 | $2.41 | +$0 | 40% 174-265 (439) |
Invested
$1,780
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$19.95
Record
53%
6689-5886 (12575)
Invested
$255
Value
$264
PnL
+$9
Record
94%
442-28 (470)
Invested
$105.6
Value
$105.6
PnL
+$7.75
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$9.36
Value
$10.56
PnL
+$1.2
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
Invested
$2.41
Value
$2.41
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
174-265 (439)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.