Will the Republican Party win the OH-10 House seat?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 69¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$1.2K
-$152.57
77.3¢ → 68.5¢
-11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Late
4638h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
9 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nicoco89 | Yesavg 76.7¢ | $844.38 | $753.67 | -$90.71 | 65% 1075-583 (1658) |
SI singularityman | Yesavg 82¢ | $314.88 | $261.12 | -$49.92 | 42% 138-193 (331) |
CO cowcat | Yesavg 72.8¢ | $117.9 | $148.24 | -$5.53 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Yesavg 70¢ | $25.15 | $24.43 | -$0.54 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Yesavg 82.6¢ | $211.69 | $17.1 | -$5.88 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
nicoco89Invested
$844.38
Value
$753.67
PnL
-$90.71
Record
65%
1075-583 (1658)
Invested
$314.88
Value
$261.12
PnL
-$49.92
Record
42%
138-193 (331)
Invested
$117.9
Value
$148.24
PnL
-$5.53
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$25.15
Value
$24.43
PnL
-$0.54
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
Invested
$211.69
Value
$17.1
PnL
-$5.88
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.