Will the Republican Party win the PA-01 House seat?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.8K
$153.57
43.7¢ → 56¢
+28% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
650h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
5 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO Contestable-Parfait | Noavg 44¢ | $534.94 | $681.47 | +$146.53 | 38% 20-32 (52) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 43.3¢ | $518.12 | $610.38 | +$92.26 | 53% 6689-5886 (12575) |
SB sbimbgCTR | Yesavg 51¢ | $485.96 | $419.26 | -$66.7 | 70% 3189-1369 (4558) |
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR<$100 | Yesavg 63¢ | $42.84 | $43.12 | -$18.62 | 73% 3600-1329 (4929) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $0.73 | $0.83 | +$0.1 | 40% 174-265 (439) |
Invested
$534.94
Value
$681.47
PnL
+$146.53
Record
38%
20-32 (52)
Invested
$518.12
Value
$610.38
PnL
+$92.26
Record
53%
6689-5886 (12575)
Invested
$485.96
Value
$419.26
PnL
-$66.7
Record
70%
3189-1369 (4558)
Invested
$42.84
Value
$43.12
PnL
-$18.62
Record
73%
3600-1329 (4929)
Invested
$0.73
Value
$0.83
PnL
+$0.1
Record
40%
174-265 (439)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.