Will the Republican Party win the SC-01 House seat?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 51¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$3.8K
$516.52
64.4¢ → 50.5¢
-22% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Late
709h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR | Noavg 30.5¢ | $1.5K | $2.4K | +$908.94 | 61% 203-132 (335) |
SB sbimbg | Yesavg 61.2¢ | $782.7 | $644.21 | -$138.49 | 70% 3189-1369 (4558) |
AB ABC12345654321 | Yesavg 67¢ | $63.59 | $602.19 | -$183.33 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
CO cowcat | Yesavg 66.6¢ | $224.96 | $169 | -$54.27 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Yesavg 66.6¢ | $65.71 | $49.39 | -$16.32 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
Invested
$1,464.76
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$908.94
Record
61%
203-132 (335)
Invested
$782.7
Value
$644.21
PnL
-$138.49
Record
70%
3189-1369 (4558)
Invested
$63.59
Value
$602.19
PnL
-$183.33
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Invested
$224.96
Value
$169
PnL
-$54.27
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$65.71
Value
$49.39
PnL
-$16.32
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.