Will the Republican Party win the TX-21 House seat?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 99¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$397.37

Smart Money Entry

85.8¢ → 98.8¢

+15% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,173

Combined PnL+$414.93

No1 trader

Total Value$41.13

Total Shares1,003

Combined PnL-$17.56

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 86.5¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$284.7	61% 203-132 (335)
LI lineth	Yesavg 84¢	$645.96	$737.47	+$114.58	41% 245-350 (595)
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Yesavg 80.3¢	$38.39	$48.14	+$9.75	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Yesavg 87¢	$43.5	$47.95	+$5.9	47% 4652-5171 (9823)
NadmiCTR<$100	Noavg 3¢	$30.1	$41.13	-$17.56	47% 2036-2278 (4314)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$1,994.14

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$284.7

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

lineth

Yes

Invested

$645.96

Value

$737.47

PnL

+$114.58

Record

41%

245-350 (595)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.39

Value

$48.14

PnL

+$9.75

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.5

Value

$47.95

PnL

+$5.9

Record

47%

4652-5171 (9823)

NadmiCTR<$100

Invested

$30.1

Value

$41.13

PnL

-$17.56

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.