Will the Republicans win the Idaho governor race in 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.7K
-$18.98
96.9¢ → 98.8¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
4825h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 probability | Yesavg 95.9¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$30.45 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
QM QMG-CORE | Yesavg 99¢ | $430.99 | $429.74 | -$2.12 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
OL OLOTH | Yesavg 98.9¢ | $127.09 | $126.87 | -$0.22 | 96% 757-31 (788) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 3.4¢ | $68 | $32.98 | -$40.73 | 53% 6689-5886 (12575) |
 nicoco89CTR<$100 | Noavg 3.7¢ | $11.96 | $4.66 | -$6.36 | 65% 1075-583 (1658) |
probabilityInvested
$1,043.02
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$30.45
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
Invested
$430.99
Value
$429.74
PnL
-$2.12
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
Invested
$127.09
Value
$126.87
PnL
-$0.22
Record
96%
757-31 (788)
Invested
$68
Value
$32.98
PnL
-$40.73
Record
53%
6689-5886 (12575)
nicoco89CTR<$100Invested
$11.96
Value
$4.66
PnL
-$6.36
Record
65%
1075-583 (1658)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.