Consensus PnL -$20K · win rate 95% (505–24, n=529) · hand-picked wallet · holds 14 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-20.4K
Record
505W / 24L
Win Rate
95.0%
of 529 settled
Batting Avg
40.5%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#151
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
5,568
Markets
821
Volume
$2.9M
Top consensus positions
14 in listed consensus markets · 14 of 14 on the consensus side (100%)- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $14K · now 98¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (91% of 43)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $11K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?No $964 · now 97¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (86% of 22)
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No $600 · now 97¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (92% of 51)
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?No $486 · now 97¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (88% of 17)
- Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?No $470 · now 99¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (100% of 13)
- Will the Democrats win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?Yes $338 · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will the Democrats win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?Yes $148 · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (80% of 10)
Specialties
740 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 98¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where OLOTH's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 99% of 84 at an average 99¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 25% of 4)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 99%(won 99% of 736)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.