Will the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein not be revealed in 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 70¢ · $993 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$992.79
-$25.23
73.1¢ → 69.5¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Late
4826h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
167 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GL Gladius7 | Yes | $625.23 | $625.23 | +$15.63 | 48% 90-98 (188) |
 allenzzz | Yesavg 87.6¢ | $290.84 | $237.32 | -$56.84 | 78% 125-36 (161) |
 2B9S<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $27.41 | $72.58 | +$43.14 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
 flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100 | Noavg 49.9¢ | $77.54 | $44.29 | -$27.82 | 39% 965-1508 (2473) |
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04<$100 | Yesavg 66¢ | $12.34 | $13.37 | +$0.65 | 88% 2229-292 (2521) |
Invested
$625.23
Value
$625.23
PnL
+$15.63
Record
48%
90-98 (188)
allenzzzInvested
$290.84
Value
$237.32
PnL
-$56.84
Record
78%
125-36 (161)
2B9S<$100Invested
$27.41
Value
$72.58
PnL
+$43.14
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100Invested
$77.54
Value
$44.29
PnL
-$27.82
Record
39%
965-1508 (2473)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04<$100Invested
$12.34
Value
$13.37
PnL
+$0.65
Record
88%
2229-292 (2521)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.