Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 70¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$4.1K
-$364.52
75.7¢ → 69.5¢
-8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
707h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Yesavg 76.3¢ | $3.7K | $3.3K | -$324.98 | 61% 203-132 (335) |
 sciuboi | Yesavg 78.8¢ | $591.73 | $522.11 | -$69.61 | 39% 201-319 (520) |
 cambridgeisaac | Yesavg 68.2¢ | $159.83 | $162.98 | +$3.15 | 57% 1113-837 (1950) |
 KimchiCapital<$100 | Yesavg 40.9¢ | $38.73 | $65.75 | +$27.03 | 75% 540-176 (716) |
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eCTR<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $1.6 | $1.53 | -$0.1 | 78% 283-79 (362) |
Invested
$3,662.23
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$324.98
Record
61%
203-132 (335)
sciuboiInvested
$591.73
Value
$522.11
PnL
-$69.61
Record
39%
201-319 (520)
cambridgeisaacInvested
$159.83
Value
$162.98
PnL
+$3.15
Record
57%
1113-837 (1950)
KimchiCapital<$100Invested
$38.73
Value
$65.75
PnL
+$27.03
Record
75%
540-176 (716)
Invested
$1.6
Value
$1.53
PnL
-$0.1
Record
78%
283-79 (362)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.