Consensus PnL $245K · win rate 50% (157–155, n=312) · was PM monthly #455 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$245.1K
Record
157W / 155L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 312 settled
Batting Avg
54.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1758
Source
PM monthly #455
Trades
3,028
Markets
526
Volume
$2.7M
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 6 on the consensus side (83%)- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $66K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Yes $24K · now 78¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (70% of 37)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $10K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
- Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?Yes $1.7K · now 14¢ · in at 13¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?Yes $522 · now 70¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Andrey Gyurov win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad?Yes $121 · now 98¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
Specialties
332 settled consensus markets · held side won 55% at an average entry of 50¢- Soccer
+15 pts
side won 56% of 59 · avg entry 41¢
ROI +6%
- Entertainment
+17 pts
side won 86% of 14 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +5%
- Politics
+3 pts
side won 50% of 10 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +1%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 38%(won 3% of 125)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 52% of 29)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 84% of 50)
- 70¢ and up: 39%(won 95% of 128)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.