Will the Toronto Maple Leafs be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$1.7K
-$55.45
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-60 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
724h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock | Noavg 96.9¢ | $775.01 | $766.77 | +$0.51 | 56% 14257-11059 (25316) |
RA RaisuuCTR | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $420.63 | $454.16 | +$33.53 | — 7-3 (10) |
0X 0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486CTR | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $606.7 | $345.6 | -$98.13 | 11% 20-166 (186) |
RO royalestakeCTR | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $76.19 | $100.18 | +$9.88 | 47% 387-441 (828) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $43.68 | $49.41 | -$1.23 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
Invested
$775.01
Value
$766.77
PnL
+$0.51
Record
56%
14257-11059 (25316)
Invested
$420.63
Value
$454.16
PnL
+$33.53
Record
—
7-3 (10)
Invested
$606.7
Value
$345.6
PnL
-$98.13
Record
11%
20-166 (186)
Invested
$76.19
Value
$100.18
PnL
+$9.88
Record
47%
387-441 (828)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$43.68
Value
$49.41
PnL
-$1.23
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.