Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $492 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$492.27
-$9
89.1¢ → 99.1¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
22 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO forgetfuldory | Noavg 99.1¢ | $321.08 | $291.21 | -$0.15 | — 5-5 (10) |
TT tttt123 | Noavg 74.6¢ | $149.18 | $198.1 | +$48.92 | 72% 1535-585 (2120) |
HO howesr1970CTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $42.62 | $1.9 | -$58.1 | — 4-8 (12) |
RA rated<$100 | Noavg 74.4¢ | $0.74 | $0.99 | +$0.25 | 29% 2865-6952 (9817) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.3¢ | $0 | $0.07 | +$0.07 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
Invested
$321.08
Value
$291.21
PnL
-$0.15
Record
—
5-5 (10)
Invested
$149.18
Value
$198.1
PnL
+$48.92
Record
72%
1535-585 (2120)
Invested
$42.62
Value
$1.9
PnL
-$58.1
Record
—
4-8 (12)
Invested
$0.74
Value
$0.99
PnL
+$0.25
Record
29%
2865-6952 (9817)
Invested
$0
Value
$0.07
PnL
+$0.07
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.