Will the US add at least 100k jobs in October?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 68¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$1.2K
-$9.21
74.5¢ → 68¢
-9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MaxVision | Noavg 75.2¢ | $752.22 | $685 | -$72.22 | 37% 42-73 (115) |
 perfectnostalgiaCTR | Yesavg 26.1¢ | $310.29 | $374.77 | +$70.43 | 55% 338-273 (611) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 70.9¢ | $290.43 | $142.52 | -$7.9 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.4¢ | $5.69 | $6.09 | +$0.4 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $2.46 | $2.55 | +$0.08 | 50% 357-357 (714) |
Invested
$752.22
Value
$685
PnL
-$72.22
Record
37%
42-73 (115)
perfectnostalgiaCTRInvested
$310.29
Value
$374.77
PnL
+$70.43
Record
55%
338-273 (611)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$290.43
Value
$142.52
PnL
-$7.9
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
Invested
$5.69
Value
$6.09
PnL
+$0.4
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$2.46
Value
$2.55
PnL
+$0.08
Record
50%
357-357 (714)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.