Consensus PnL $12K · win rate 44% (53–67, n=120) · was PM monthly #997 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$11.9K
Record
53W / 67L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 120 settled
Batting Avg
33.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2024
Source
PM monthly #997
Trades
293
Markets
164
Volume
$142.7K
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 9 on the consensus side (56%)- Trump out as President before 2027?Yes $4.9K · now 3¢ · in at 5¢against the consensus (No)
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Yes $4.7K · now 95¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (67% of 27)
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in November?Yes $2.1K · now 70¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?Yes $1.2K · now 33¢ · in at 18¢against the consensus (No)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?No $940 · now 94¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (56% of 27)
- Will the US add at least 100k jobs in October?No $685 · now 68¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
- AI bubble burst in 2026?Yes $61 · now 10¢ · in at 23¢against the consensus (No)
- Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes $6 · now 0¢ · in at 13¢with the consensus (89% of 9)
Specialties
136 settled consensus markets · held side won 44% at an average entry of 41¢- Geopolitics
+16 pts
side won 71% of 24 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +14%
- Economy
+8 pts
side won 44% of 32 · avg entry 35¢
ROI +8%
- Finance
+8 pts
side won 53% of 32 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +14%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 31% of 16 at an average 54¢ entry (−23 pts against the price), ROI −10%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 46%(won 19% of 63)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 44% of 18)
- 50–70¢: 19%(won 54% of 26)
- 70¢ and up: 21%(won 90% of 29)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.