Consensus PnL $156K · win rate 52% (238–220, n=458) · hand-picked wallet · holds 22 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$156.3K
Record
238W / 220L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 458 settled
Batting Avg
57.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1638
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
30,800
Markets
770
Volume
$2.1M
Top consensus positions
22 in listed consensus markets · 16 of 22 on the consensus side (73%)- Blue wave in 2026?Yes $8.3K · now 88¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (63% of 16)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $4.8K · now 95¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $4.3K · now 5¢ · in at 0¢against the consensus (No)
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?No $3.6K · now 73¢ · in at 75¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?Yes $2.7K · now 91¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (65% of 17)
- Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?Yes $2.2K · now 94¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $2.2K · now 71¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (82% of 110)
- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $1.5K · now 40¢ · in at 27¢with the consensus (83% of 42)
Specialties
591 settled consensus markets · held side won 51% at an average entry of 48¢- Economy
+4 pts
side won 50% of 472 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +6%
- Elections
+3 pts
side won 47% of 51 · avg entry 44¢
ROI +4%
- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 91% of 11 · avg entry 87¢
ROI +7%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 60% of 15 at an average 64¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 41%(won 14% of 245)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 42% of 97)
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 61% of 49)
- 70¢ and up: 34%(won 98% of 200)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.