Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the US economy be in stagflation at the end of 2026?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 1.1¢ · $51 held · ends Feb 1, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Mon, Feb 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$51.4

Combined PnL

-$73.59

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$44.48

Total Shares45

Combined PnL+$10.31

Yes3 traders

Total Value$6.92

Total Shares602

Combined PnL-$83.89

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 81.3¢	$44.73	$44.48	+$10.31	58% 15832-11509 (27341)
viniiCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.67	$3.21	-$0.28	73% 3100-1126 (4226)
FO fourcoin15mCTR<$100	Yes	$2.07	$2.07	-$44.39	39% 5789-9168 (14957)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.6¢	$19.6	$1.65	-$39.23	51% 2595-2532 (5127)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$44.73

Value

$44.48

PnL

+$10.31

Record

58%

15832-11509 (27341)

viniiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.67

Value

$3.21

PnL

-$0.28

Record

73%

3100-1126 (4226)

fourcoin15mCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.07

Value

$2.07

PnL

-$44.39

Record

39%

5789-9168 (14957)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.6

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$39.23

Record

51%

2595-2532 (5127)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.3%

1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4334.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

4434.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.