Consensus PnL $15K · win rate 42% (5468–7598, n=13066) · PM monthly #399 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$14.8K
Record
5468W / 7598L
Win Rate
42.0%
of 13066 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1452
Source
PM monthly #399
Record (90 d)
276/617 · 45%
Trades
254
Markets
19,699
Volume
$229.8K
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Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 9 on the consensus side (89%)- Will Person D be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes $529 · now 0¢with the consensus (100% of 31)
- Will Person E be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes $529 · now 0¢with the consensus (100% of 31)
- Will Person F be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes $529 · now 0¢with the consensus (100% of 31)
- Will Person G be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Yes $529 · now 0¢with the consensus (100% of 31)
- Will Party B win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes $376 · now 0¢with the consensus (100% of 17)
- Will Party C win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes $376 · now 0¢with the consensus (100% of 16)
- Will xAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes $10 · now 26¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (100% of 32)
- Will the US economy be in stagflation at the end of 2026?Yes $2 · now 0¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
515 settled consensus markets · held side won 47% at an average entry of 48¢- Esports
+4 pts
side won 64% of 11 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Weather — held side won 52% of 114 at an average 53¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +15%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 43%(won 5% of 224)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 39% of 44)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 66% of 44)
- 70¢ and up: 39%(won 91% of 203)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.