Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Vegas Golden Knights be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 7.5¢ · $2K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$2.0K
$145.56
7¢ → 7.5¢
+8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Late
721h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
21 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RO royalestakeCTR | Yesavg 7¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$90.42 | 47% 387-441 (828) |
BT BTCGambler247CTR | Yesavg 7¢ | $350 | $350 | +$25.01 | 47% 217-240 (457) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 7.5¢ | $153.5 | $143.5 | +$0.26 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
LE leegunnerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $74.69 | $87.14 | +$18.67 | 41% 1281-1829 (3110) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $6.05 | $17.25 | +$11.2 | 45% 1906-2351 (4257) |
Invested
$1,265.92
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$90.42
Record
47%
387-441 (828)
Invested
$350
Value
$350
PnL
+$25.01
Record
47%
217-240 (457)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$153.5
Value
$143.5
PnL
+$0.26
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$74.69
Value
$87.14
PnL
+$18.67
Record
41%
1281-1829 (3110)
Invested
$6.05
Value
$17.25
PnL
+$11.2
Record
45%
1906-2351 (4257)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.