Consensus PnL $392K · win rate 72% (209–83, n=292) · was PM monthly #373 · holds 37 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$392.2K
Record
209W / 83L
Win Rate
72.0%
of 292 settled
Batting Avg
45.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#664
Source
PM monthly #373
Trades
851
Markets
415
Volume
$4.7M
Top consensus positions
37 in listed consensus markets · 28 of 37 on the consensus side (76%)- Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $27K · now 11¢ · in at 7¢against the consensus (No)
- Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $24K · now 24¢ · in at 20¢with the consensus (91% of 11)
- Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $22K · now 8¢ · in at 5¢with the consensus (100% of 9)
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $16K · now 19¢ · in at 18¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Ravens $15K · now 54¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (53% of 17)
- Spread: Steelers (-3.5)Browns $8.1K · now 51¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (Steelers)
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $7.1K · now 10¢ · in at 10¢with the consensus (94% of 35)
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?No $5.8K · now 97¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (88% of 17)
Specialties
258 settled consensus markets · held side won 91% at an average entry of 63¢- NFL
+39 pts
side won 88% of 90 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +42%
- NHL
+41 pts
side won 100% of 12 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +46%
- Geopolitics
+20 pts
side won 93% of 68 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +20%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 12%(won 61% of 31)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 89% of 44)
- 50–70¢: 30%(won 92% of 77)
- 70¢ and up: 41%(won 100% of 106)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.