Will the Washington Wizards make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 73¢ · $10K held
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 83%
$10.4K
$76.1
68.3¢ → 73¢
+7% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 73%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Late
485h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 JustADonk | Noavg 65.1¢ | $4.7K | $5.0K | +$275.74 | 55% 911-754 (1665) |
ND ndb1 | Noavg 72¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | -$88.36 | 66% 882-454 (1336) |
AN anciano | Noavg 71.9¢ | $2.4K | $2.3K | -$112.14 | 52% 1154-1067 (2221) |
AB ABC12345654321 | Noavg 64.9¢ | $473.37 | $347.99 | +$28.43 | 50% 1694-1679 (3373) |
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c | Noavg 73.5¢ | $277.1 | $256.2 | -$20.9 | 66% 608-308 (916) |
 LiquidatedDegenCTR | Yesavg 28.2¢ | $130.02 | $123.33 | -$6.68 | 42% 1085-1484 (2569) |
JustADonkInvested
$4,718.46
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$275.74
Record
55%
911-754 (1665)
Invested
$2,544.75
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$88.36
Record
66%
882-454 (1336)
Invested
$2,371.56
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$112.14
Record
52%
1154-1067 (2221)
Invested
$473.37
Value
$347.99
PnL
+$28.43
Record
50%
1694-1679 (3373)
Invested
$277.1
Value
$256.2
PnL
-$20.9
Record
66%
608-308 (916)
LiquidatedDegenCTRInvested
$130.02
Value
$123.33
PnL
-$6.68
Record
42%
1085-1484 (2569)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.