Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Winnipeg Jets record 90+ points?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 30¢ · $700 held · ends Apr 30, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$700.05
-$36.13
39.9¢ → 30¢
-25% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 30%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CUTJALENHURTSCTR | Yesavg 39.8¢ | $414.4 | $316.2 | -$105.53 | 52% 6028-5633 (11661) |
 extractive-manatee | Noavg 58.3¢ | $291.33 | $154.22 | +$30.13 | 34% 602-1160 (1762) |
ND ndb1 | Noavg 57¢ | $124.36 | $150.54 | +$29.45 | 65% 958-515 (1473) |
 Anjun<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $68.27 | $78.26 | +$9.99 | 55% 5068-4140 (9208) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $0.47 | $0.31 | -$0.18 | 18% 362-1675 (2037) |
CUTJALENHURTSCTRInvested
$414.4
Value
$316.2
PnL
-$105.53
Record
52%
6028-5633 (11661)
extractive-manateeInvested
$291.33
Value
$154.22
PnL
+$30.13
Record
34%
602-1160 (1762)
Invested
$124.36
Value
$150.54
PnL
+$29.45
Record
65%
958-515 (1473)
Anjun<$100Invested
$68.27
Value
$78.26
PnL
+$9.99
Record
55%
5068-4140 (9208)
Invested
$0.47
Value
$0.31
PnL
-$0.18
Record
18%
362-1675 (2037)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.