Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 53¢ · $8K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$8.4K
$4.8K
22.2¢ → 52.5¢
+137% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 gopfan2 | Yesavg 19.6¢ | $1.5K | $4.4K | +$3.0K | 51% 901-875 (1776) |
 DEGENKHAN | Yesavg 24.3¢ | $1.7K | $3.4K | +$1.7K | 66% 1107-565 (1672) |
 0x8712 | Yesavg 31¢ | $310 | $510 | +$210 | 30% 102-237 (339) |
TT tttt123CTR<$100 | Noavg 78.1¢ | $72.08 | $44.4 | -$27.68 | 72% 1535-585 (2120) |
HO HourglassCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $0.62 | $0.57 | -$0.05 | 77% 8889-2658 (11547) |
gopfan2Invested
$1,473.58
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$3.0K
Record
51%
901-875 (1776)
DEGENKHANInvested
$1,715.44
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$1.7K
Record
66%
1107-565 (1672)
0x8712Invested
$310
Value
$510
PnL
+$210
Record
30%
102-237 (339)
Invested
$72.08
Value
$44.4
PnL
-$27.68
Record
72%
1535-585 (2120)
Invested
$0.62
Value
$0.57
PnL
-$0.05
Record
77%
8889-2658 (11547)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.