Consensus PnL $849 · win rate 25% (59–180, n=239) · hand-picked wallet · holds 18 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$848.63
Record
59W / 180L
Win Rate
25.0%
of 239 settled
Batting Avg
70.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2228
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
8,885
Markets
394
Volume
$467.1K
Top consensus positions
18 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 18 on the consensus side (44%)- Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?No $1.8K · now 44¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes $1.7K · now 84¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (73% of 49)
- Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?No $1.6K · now 80¢ · in at 56¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?No $1.4K · now 80¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (89% of 28)
- Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?No $1.1K · now 28¢ · in at 19¢with the consensus (70% of 10)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $630 · now 66¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (68% of 131)
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?No $600 · now 14¢ · in at 18¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Yes $510 · now 51¢ · in at 31¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
Specialties
180 settled consensus markets · held side won 53% at an average entry of 34¢- Geopolitics
+32 pts
side won 72% of 36 · avg entry 40¢
ROI +15%
- Tech
+28 pts
side won 64% of 14 · avg entry 36¢
ROI +5%
- Mentions
+9 pts
side won 25% of 55 · avg entry 16¢
ROI +1%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 51%(won 17% of 92)
- 30–50¢: 18%(won 78% of 32)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 100% of 30)
- 70¢ and up: 14%(won 96% of 26)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.