Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 90¢ · $11K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$10.9K
$432.48
85.9¢ → 89.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
2481h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Warren-Buffett | Yesavg 85.8¢ | $8.6K | $9.0K | +$371.16 | 65% 862-465 (1327) |
FI firegold | Yesavg 86.9¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$48.05 | 59% 323-224 (547) |
 4751346 | Yesavg 85¢ | $212.5 | $223.75 | +$11.25 | 72% 1257-483 (1740) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Noavg 11¢ | $94.33 | $94.33 | -$0 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
 PMTraderAdam<$100 | Yesavg 79¢ | $15.15 | $17.17 | +$2.01 | 77% 830-249 (1079) |
Warren-BuffettInvested
$8,586.64
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$371.16
Record
65%
862-465 (1327)
Invested
$1,583.02
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$48.05
Record
59%
323-224 (547)
4751346Invested
$212.5
Value
$223.75
PnL
+$11.25
Record
72%
1257-483 (1740)
Invested
$94.33
Value
$94.33
PnL
-$0
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
PMTraderAdam<$100Invested
$15.15
Value
$17.17
PnL
+$2.01
Record
77%
830-249 (1079)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.