Will Together win 7-9% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 30

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$213.54

Smart Money Entry

64.5¢ → 99.7¢

+54% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,577

Combined PnL+$558.87

Yes3 traders

Total Value$7.11

Total Shares2,031

Combined PnL-$345.32

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

122h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x25db6cA5935ae858A5c1F2dCD5c62939805328dE-1770665598557	Noavg 64.4¢	$308.78	$1.5K	+$556.64	43% 130-169 (299)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 75.5¢	$23.32	$25.55	+$2.23	38% 187-302 (489)
LA lava-lavaCTR	Yesavg 11.4¢	$119.44	$3.66	-$115.79	43% 534-721 (1255)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR	Yesavg 34.2¢	$148.13	$2.35	-$227.62	36% 636-1125 (1761)
archaicCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$3.02	$1.1	-$1.91	85% 1926-344 (2270)

0x25db6cA5935ae858A5c1F2dCD5c62939805328dE-1770665598557

Invested

$308.78

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$556.64

Record

43%

130-169 (299)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$23.32

Value

$25.55

PnL

+$2.23

Record

38%

187-302 (489)

lava-lavaCTR

Yes

Invested

$119.44

Value

$3.66

PnL

-$115.79

Record

43%

534-721 (1255)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR

Yes

Invested

$148.13

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$227.62

Record

36%

636-1125 (1761)

archaicCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.02

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$1.91

Record

85%

1926-344 (2270)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

122h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.