Consensus PnL $1.2M · win rate 43% (366–494, n=860) · PM monthly #80 · holds 98 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.2M
Record
366W / 494L
Win Rate
43.0%
of 860 settled
Batting Avg
63.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2279
Source
PM monthly #80
Record (90 d)
87/308 · 28%
Trades
3,912
Markets
1,363
Volume
$18.6M
Top consensus positions
98 in listed consensus markets · 48 of 98 on the consensus side (49%)- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Yes $23K · now 62¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes $17K · now 43¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No $14K · now 80¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (52% of 69)
- Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?No $14K · now 62¢ · in at 41¢with the consensus (58% of 45)
- Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?No $6.0K · now 97¢ · in at 63¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes $5.0K · now 51¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (61% of 33)
- Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $4.6K · now 7¢ · in at 2¢against the consensus (No)
- Blue tsunami in 2026?Yes $4.1K · now 68¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (50% of 10)
Specialties
843 settled consensus markets · held side won 40% at an average entry of 38¢- Entertainment
+7 pts
side won 26% of 19 · avg entry 19¢
ROI +4%
- Geopolitics
+5 pts
side won 67% of 60 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +3%
- Soccer
+3 pts
side won 42% of 26 · avg entry 39¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Finance — held side won 36% of 14 at an average 50¢ entry (−15 pts against the price), ROI +3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 48%(won 7% of 403)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 38% of 138)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 69% of 125)
- 70¢ and up: 21%(won 95% of 177)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.