Consensus PnL $101K · win rate 59% (118–83, n=201) · PM monthly #867 · holds 16 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$101.4K
Record
118W / 83L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 201 settled
Batting Avg
54.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1274
Source
PM monthly #867
Record (90 d)
19/60 · 32%
Trades
2,592
Markets
341
Volume
$1.2M
Top consensus positions
16 in listed consensus markets · 10 of 16 on the consensus side (63%)- Will Together win 7-9% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?No $1.5K · now 100¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (17% of 6)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Yes $1.1K · now 7¢ · in at 6¢against the consensus (No)
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes $840 · now 14¢ · in at 15¢against the consensus (No)
- Israeli election results in a hung parliament?Yes $699 · now 47¢with the consensus (79% of 24)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes $676 · now 12¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (No)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?Yes $493 · now 64¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?Yes $407 · now 9¢ · in at 63¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Reservists – New Economic Party win 2.75-3.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?No $170 · now 99¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (50% of 8)
Specialties
192 settled consensus markets · held side won 37% at an average entry of 30¢- Geopolitics
+7 pts
side won 37% of 115 · avg entry 29¢
ROI −1%
- Finance
+7 pts
side won 32% of 60 · avg entry 25¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 70% of 10 at an average 70¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 63%(won 9% of 121)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 56% of 16)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 85% of 20)
- 70¢ and up: 18%(won 97% of 35)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.