Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $170 held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$170.39
-$6.93
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Late
4874h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
173 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO cowcat | Noavg 66.6¢ | $97.89 | $145.22 | +$47.32 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
DE dedidanc<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $12.1 | $21.99 | +$9.89 | 57% 103-77 (180) |
AN anoin123CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $52.93 | $2.21 | -$50.73 | 47% 474-534 (1008) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $9.45 | $0.82 | -$8.63 | 48% 3491-3823 (7314) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.16 | $0.16 | -$4.79 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
Invested
$97.89
Value
$145.22
PnL
+$47.32
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$12.1
Value
$21.99
PnL
+$9.89
Record
57%
103-77 (180)
Invested
$52.93
Value
$2.21
PnL
-$50.73
Record
47%
474-534 (1008)
Invested
$9.45
Value
$0.82
PnL
-$8.63
Record
48%
3491-3823 (7314)
Invested
$0.16
Value
$0.16
PnL
-$4.79
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.