Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont be between 275,000 and 300,000?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 45¢ · $371 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$370.65
$14.2
Research grade
NeutralYes at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
313h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 31.7¢ | $144.38 | $211.58 | +$40.51 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
 EsperanzasDESTROYER | Noavg 56.8¢ | $113.98 | $101.47 | -$12.5 | 57% 47-36 (83) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 64.4¢ | $41.46 | $32.7 | -$8.76 | 18% 3832-17370 (21202) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $17.57 | $14.6 | -$2.55 | 53% 6689-5886 (12575) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $12.8 | $10.3 | -$2.5 | 32% 4493-9634 (14127) |
Invested
$144.38
Value
$211.58
PnL
+$40.51
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
EsperanzasDESTROYERInvested
$113.98
Value
$101.47
PnL
-$12.5
Record
57%
47-36 (83)
2B9S<$100Invested
$41.46
Value
$32.7
PnL
-$8.76
Record
18%
3832-17370 (21202)
Invested
$17.57
Value
$14.6
PnL
-$2.55
Record
53%
6689-5886 (12575)
Invested
$12.8
Value
$10.3
PnL
-$2.5
Record
32%
4493-9634 (14127)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.